“If our species is to stagger t hrough another millennium, we need to g et better at thinking about how we t hink—and conducting high-stakes debates m ore intelligently. This book lays out, with s uperb clarity, the path forward.” PHILIP E. TETLOCK , author of Superforecasting “Third Millennium Thinking o ffers a road map for making more e ffective decisions in an increasingly c omplex and noisy world. If you could o nly read one book about how to think m ore clearly, make it this one.” ANNIE DUKE , author of Thinking in Bets ? ! “A physicist, a philosopher, a nd a psychologist walk into a book, and m ix an inviting cocktail about how to t hink through big problems and make e ffective decisions in a Third Millennium a ge of overwhelming, complex, and c ontradictory information. A must-read f or anyone who needs to make expert j udgments without being experts t hemselves.” DAVID DUNNING , professor of p sychology at the University of Michigan a nd discoverer of the Dunning-Kruger E ffect “A Nobel laureate physicist, an i nfluential philosopher, and an expert on l egal psychology reveal how you can use t he tools of science in everyday life. In a w orld filled with uncertainty and fractured b y polarization, this guide to clear t hinking couldn’t come at a better time.” ADAM GRANT , author of Think Again a nd Hidden Potential “Marvelous.” LEONARD MLODINOW , author of Subliminal “ A wonderful book for anyone i nterested in how best to navigate our c omplex world of information overload. E ngagingly and informatively, it emphasizes h ow processes used in the practice of s cience can provide widely applicable tools f or approaching individual and collective d ecision-making. A truly valuable resource f or taking on the challenges facing our s pecies and the planet.” ELIZABETH BLACKBURN , PhD, Nobel P rize winner and coauthor of The Telomere Effec t “A model of clear thinking and a t errific discussion of how to use logic and e vidence to solve the hardest problems. This m ight just be the cure for what ails us.” CASS R. SUNSTEIN , Robert Walmsley U niversity Professor, Harvard University, and a uthor of Decisions about Decisions a philosopher, walk into a book... ... and  present the tools      and frameworks        that       scientists have          developed         to keep      from        fooling themselves,       to           understand the      world,         and to        make       decisions. ? ! Amazon Barnes & Noble Large Orders TBD I n s t r u m e n t s a n d R e a l i t y C h a p t e r 2 F i n d i n g S i g n a l i n N o i s e C h a p t e r 6 O v e r c o n f i d e n c e a n d H u m i l i t y C h a p t e r 5 S c i e n t i f i c O p t i m i s m C h a p t e r 1 0 S c i e n c e G o n e W r o n g C h a p t e r 1 3 S y s t e m a t i c a l a n d S y s t e m a t i c U n c e r t a i n t y C h a p t e r 9 M a k i n g T h i n g s H a p p e n C h a p t e r 3 " P i c k Y o u r P o i s o n " : T w o K i n d s o f E r r o r C h a p t e r 8 S e e i n g S i g n a l i n R a n d o m N o i s e C h a p t e r 7 A R a d i c a l S h i f t t o P r o b a b i l i s t i c T h i n k i n g C h a p t e r 4 W h y I t ' s H a r d t o L e a r n f r o m E x p e r i e n c e C h a p t e r 1 2 C o n f i r m a t i o n B i a s a n d B l i n d A n a l y s i s C h a p t e r 1 4 O r d e r s o f U n d e r s t a n d i n g a n d F e r m i P r o b l e m s C h a p t e r 1 1 T h e D e l i b e r a t i v e C h a l l e n g e C h a p t e r 1 7 W e a v i n g F a c t s a n d V a l u e s C h a p t e r 1 6 T h e W i s d o m a n d t h e M a d n e s s o f C r o w d s C h a p t e r 1 5 D e c i s i o n s , D e c i s i o n s , D e c i s i o n s C h a p t e r 1 JOHN CAM PBELL is a professor of philosophy at the Uni versity of California, Berkeley. He has held Guggenheim and NEH Fellowships and served as President of the European Society for Philosophy and Psycho logy. ROBERT MacCOUN is a social psychologist, a professor of law at Stanford University, and a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute. He received the 2019 James McKeen Cattell Awar d for lifetime ac hievement from the Association for Psyc hological Science SA UL PERLMUTTER is a 2011 Nobel Laureate, sharing the prize in physics for the discovery of the accelerat ing expansion of the universe. He is a professor of ph ysics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a senior scientist at Lawr ence Berkeley National Laboratory. IMAGE CREDITS: AUTHOR PHOTOGRAPHS: JON SCHAINKER (SAUL PERLMUTTER); RORY CAMPBELL (JOHN CAMPBELL); AUDREY Mac COUN (ROBERT MacCOUN); JACKET DESIGN BY KEITH HAYES; JACKET ART © SHUTTERSTOCK IMAGES; BLANK WHITE BOOK COVER: IMAGE BY VECTONAUTA ON FREEPIK; DICE IMAGE, ICON DESIGN, AND WEBSITE BY NOA PERLMUTTER a nd a p sychologist Based on a wildly popular UC Berkeley course, a primer on how to think critically, make sound decisions, and solve problems—individually and collectively—using scientists’ tricks of the trade. In our deluge of information, it's getting harder and harder to distinguish the revelatory from the contradictory. How do we make health decisions in the face of conflicting medical advice? Does that article on GMOs even show what the authors claim? How can we navigate the next Thanksgiving discussion with our in-laws, who follow completely different experts on climate? In Third Millennium Thinking, a physicist, a psychologist, and a philosopher introduce readers to the tools and frameworks that scientists have developed to keep from fooling themselves, to understand the world, and to make decisions. We can all borrow these trust-building techniques to tackle problems both big and small. Readers will learn: How to achieve a ground-level understanding of the facts of the modern world How to chart a course through a profusion of possibilities How to work together to take on the challenges we face today And much more Using provocative thought exercises, jargon-free language, and vivid illustrations drawn from history, daily life, and scientists’ insider stories, Third Millennium Thinking offers a novel approach for readers to make sense of the nonsense. Related Educational Links THIRD MILLENNIUM THINKING A physicist, Nobel Prize Outreach High School Course: Scientific Thinking for All: A Toolkit https://www.nobelprize.org/scientific- thinking-for-all/ Un i ver s ity Cour s e: Sen s e and Sen s ibility and Scienc e http s :// s en s esen s ibility s cience.berkele y .edu /