“If our species is to stagger
t
hrough another millennium, we need to
g
et better at thinking about how we
t
hink—and conducting high-stakes debates
m
ore intelligently. This book lays out, with
s
uperb clarity, the path forward.”
—
PHILIP E. TETLOCK
,
author of
Superforecasting
“Third Millennium Thinking
o
ffers a road map for making more
e
ffective decisions in an increasingly
c
omplex and noisy world. If you could
o
nly read one book about how to think
m
ore clearly, make it this one.”
—
ANNIE DUKE
,
author of
Thinking in
Bets
?
!
“A physicist, a philosopher,
a
nd a psychologist walk into a book, and
m
ix an inviting cocktail about how to
t
hink through big problems and make
e
ffective decisions in a Third Millennium
a
ge of overwhelming, complex, and
c
ontradictory information. A must-read
f
or anyone who needs to make expert
j
udgments without being experts
t
hemselves.”
—
DAVID DUNNING
,
professor of
p
sychology at the University of Michigan
a
nd discoverer of the Dunning-Kruger
E
ffect
“A Nobel laureate physicist, an
i
nfluential philosopher, and an expert on
l
egal psychology reveal how you can use
t
he tools of science in everyday life. In a
w
orld filled with uncertainty and fractured
b
y polarization, this guide to clear
t
hinking couldn’t come at a better time.”
—
ADAM GRANT
,
author of
Think Again
a
nd
Hidden Potential
“Marvelous.”
—
LEONARD MLODINOW
,
author of
Subliminal
“ A wonderful book for anyone
i
nterested in how best to navigate our
c
omplex world of information overload.
E
ngagingly and informatively, it emphasizes
h
ow processes used in the practice of
s
cience can provide widely applicable tools
f
or approaching individual and collective
d
ecision-making. A truly valuable resource
f
or taking on the challenges facing our
s
pecies and the planet.”
—
ELIZABETH BLACKBURN
,
PhD, Nobel
P
rize winner and coauthor of
The Telomere
Effec
t
“A model of clear thinking and a
t
errific discussion of how to use logic and
e
vidence to solve the hardest problems. This
m
ight just be the cure for what ails us.”
—
CASS R. SUNSTEIN
,
Robert Walmsley
U
niversity Professor, Harvard University, and
a
uthor of
Decisions about Decisions
a philosopher,
walk
into
a book...
... and present the tools and
frameworks that scientists
have developed to
keep from fooling
themselves, to understand
the world, and
to make decisions.
?
!
Amazon
Barnes
& Noble
Large
Orders
TBD
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1
JOHN CAM
PBELL is a professor of philosophy at the
Uni
versity
of California, Berkeley.
He has held
Guggenheim and NEH Fellowships and served as
President of the European Society for Philosophy and
Psycho
logy.
ROBERT
MacCOUN is a social psychologist, a
professor of law at Stanford University, and a senior
fellow at
the Freeman Spogli
Institute. He received
the
2019 James McKeen Cattell Awar
d for lifetime
ac
hievement from the Association for Psyc
hological
Science
SA
UL PERLMUTTER is a
2011 Nobel Laureate,
sharing the prize in physics for the discovery of the
accelerat
ing expansion of the universe. He is a
professor of ph
ysics at the University of California,
Berkeley,
and a senior scientist at Lawr
ence Berkeley
National Laboratory.
IMAGE CREDITS: AUTHOR PHOTOGRAPHS: JON SCHAINKER (SAUL PERLMUTTER); RORY
CAMPBELL (JOHN CAMPBELL); AUDREY
Mac
COUN (ROBERT
MacCOUN); JACKET DESIGN BY KEITH HAYES; JACKET ART © SHUTTERSTOCK IMAGES;
BLANK WHITE BOOK
COVER: IMAGE BY VECTONAUTA ON FREEPIK; DICE IMAGE, ICON DESIGN, AND WEBSITE BY
NOA PERLMUTTER
a
nd a
p
sychologist
Based on a wildly popular UC Berkeley course, a primer on
how to think critically, make sound decisions, and solve
problems—individually and collectively—using scientists’
tricks of the trade.
In our deluge of information, it's getting harder and harder to
distinguish the revelatory from the contradictory. How do we
make health decisions in the face of conflicting medical
advice? Does that article on GMOs even show what the
authors claim? How can we navigate the next Thanksgiving
discussion with our in-laws, who follow completely different
experts on climate?
In Third Millennium Thinking, a physicist, a psychologist, and
a philosopher introduce readers to the tools and frameworks
that scientists have developed to keep from fooling
themselves, to understand the world, and to make decisions.
We can all borrow these trust-building techniques to tackle
problems both big and small.
Readers will learn:
How to achieve a ground-level understanding
of the facts of the modern world
How to chart a course through
a profusion of possibilities
How to work together to take on the
challenges we face today
And much more
Using provocative thought exercises, jargon-free language, and
vivid illustrations drawn from history, daily life, and scientists’
insider stories, Third Millennium Thinking offers a novel
approach for readers to make sense of the nonsense.
Related Educational Links
THIRD MILLENNIUM THINKING
A
physicist,
Nobel Prize Outreach High School Course:
Scientific Thinking for All: A Toolkit
https://www.nobelprize.org/scientific-
thinking-for-all/
Un
i
ver
s
ity
Cour
s
e:
Sen
s
e and Sen
s
ibility and Scienc
e
http
s
://
s
en
s
esen
s
ibility
s
cience.berkele
y
.edu
/